Psikhologicheskie Issledovaniya • ISSN 2075-7999
peer-reviewed • open access journal
      

 

2017 Vol. 10 Issue 51

Bulygina V.G., Dubinsky A.A., Lysenko N.E., Shmakova E.V. Modelling of the risk factors of criminal reoffending among persons with severe mental disorders


BULYGINA V.G., DUBINSKY A.A., LYSENKO N.E., SHMAKOVA E.V. MODELLING OF THE RISK FACTORS OF CRIMINAL REOFFENDING AMONG PERSONS WITH SEVERE MENTAL DISORDERS
Full text in Russian: Булыгина В.Г., Дубинский А.А., Лысенко Н.Е., Шмакова Е.В. Моделирование факторов риска криминального рецидива у лиц с тяжелыми психическими расстройствами

Serbsky Federal Medical Research Centre for Psychiatry and Narcology, Moscow, Russia
Psychiatric Hospital 5, Troickoe, Russia

About authors
Suggested citation


The results of the modelling of the psychopathological, socio-demographic and psychological risk factors of criminal recidivism among mentally ill males and females are presented in the article. According to obtained data the common predictors of criminal reoffending in both groups were: dysfunction in parent's family, multiple parasuicides, exogenic factors such as repeated brain injuries and drug abuse. There were revealed such gender-specific predictors of reoffending: the dynamic component disturbances of cognitive sphere among women; as well as inertia of mental processes, reduction of the amount of memorization, the low level of development of cognitive sphere – such as learning ability, competence in life situations, instability of the self-assessment, violation of self-control and self-criticism in men. Method for statistical data analysis with decision trees was applied to build the prognostic model of criminal reoffending among mentally ill persons. The models support different decisions for risk factors criminal reoffending prognosis in men and women. In men the most significant were the tendency to react due to actual situation (spontaneously), low competence in life situations, the lack of interest in treatment results, simple tasks preference, and reduced ability to the modelling of action context. In the group of women the most significant were violations of operational and dynamic aspects of mental activity. Models have a high diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, efficiency and quality.

Keywords: risk of reoffending, predicative model, compulsory treatment, statistical data analysis with decision trees, ROC-curve

 

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Received 25 August 2016. Date of publication: 27 February 2017.

About authors

Bulygina Vera G. Ph.D., Head of Laboratory, Psychological Problems of Forensic Psychiatry Prevention, Serbsky Federal Medical Research Centre for Psychiatry and Narcology, Kropotkinskii per., 23, 119991 Moscow, Russia.
Е-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.

Dubinsky Aleksandr A. Junior Researcher, the Laboratory of the Psychological Problems of Forensic Psychiatry Prevention, Serbsky Federal Medical Research Centre for Psychiatry and Narcology, Kropotkinskii per., 23, 119991 Moscow, Russia.
Е-mail: aleksandr–Этот адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.

Lysenko Nadezhda E. Medical Psychologist, Serbsky Federal Medical Research Centre for Psychiatry and Narcology, Kropotkinskii per., 23, 119991 Moscow, Russia.
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Shmakova Evgeniya V. Medical psychologist,  Department No. 10, Psychiatric Hospital No. 5, Moscow Health Department, Troickoe, 5, Moskovskaja oblast', Russia.
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Suggested citation

Bulygina V.G., Dubinsky A.A., Lysenko N.E., Shmakova E.V.  Modelling of the risk factors of criminal reoffending among persons with severe mental disorders. Psikhologicheskie Issledovaniya, 2017, Vol. 10, No. 51, p. 2. http://psystudy.ru (in Russian, abstr. in English).

Permanent URL: http://psystudy.ru/index.php/eng/2017v10n51e/1389-bulygina51e.html

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