Psikhologicheskie Issledovaniya • ISSN 2075-7999
peer-reviewed • open access journal


2018 Vol 11 Issue 62

Nasledov A.D., Miroshnikov S.A., Tkacheva L.O. Identification of prognostic markers of developmental delay in 5-year-olds

Full text in Russian: Наследов А.Д., Мирошников С.А., Ткачева Л.О. Идентификация прогнозных маркеров задержки психического развития 5-летних детей

St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia

About authors
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This article is a continuation of our previous publication dedicated to 4-year-old children. This article presents an analysis of the factor structure of abilities of 5-year-old children with scales elaboration which differentiate most accurately typically developing children of this age ("Norm") and children with developmental delay ("DD"). The sample of the research consisted of 604 children (527 of Norm and 53 of DD group). To identify points which most significantly separate groups ("Norm" and "DD") stepwise procedures of discriminant and factor analysis were used with subsequent verification of the reliability of isolated factors-scales and eventually the predictive model was constructed using SEM. As a result, a set of predictors was selected, which are reliable markers of DD of 5year-olds. The set of these predictors broadly coincides with the predictors for 4-year-olds and includes the following main components (in descending order of their contribution to the prediction): "Logical judgment", "Motor Skills", "General awareness". Scales corresponding to these components form a general scale in conjunction with age which allows precise indicating DD’ "risk group". As a result of standardization, test standards were developed for this general scale which demonstrates high sensitivity of the prediction of DD (90.9%) when the value of the specificity of the Norm prediction is 94%. The final conclusion is that the only predictor of the diagnosis (Norm or DD) is G-factor, the indicators of which are the selected scales. The opportunity of using the obtained standards for the rapid identification of the "risk group" for further differential diagnosis among 5-year-olds is proposed.

Keywords: prognostic markers, developmental delay, norm, 5-year-old children, screening, SEM, factor structure of abilities


The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project 17-06-00989-OGN.


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Received 15 October 2018. Date of publication: 15 December 2018.

About authors

Nasledov Andrey D. Ph.D, Faculty of Psychology, St. Petersburg State University, Universitetskaya nab, 7/9, 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia.
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Miroshnikov Sergey A. Ph.D, Director, Longitude Ltd, Grazhdanskii pr., 83–4, 195257 St. Petersburg, Russia.
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Tkacheva Liubov O. Ph.D, Faculty of Psychology, St. Petersburg State University, Universitetskaya nab, 7/9, 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia.
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Suggested citation

Nasledov A.D., Miroshnikov S.A., Tkacheva L.O. Identification of prognostic markers of developmental delay in 5-year-olds. Psikhologicheskie Issledovaniya, 2018, Vol. 11, No. 62, p. 5. (in Russian, abstr. in English).

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