Modelling of the risk factors of criminal reoffending among persons with severe mental disorders

Abstract

The results of the modelling of the psychopathological, socio-demographic and psychological risk factors of criminal recidivism among mentally ill males and females are presented in the article. According to obtained data the common predictors of criminal reoffending in both groups were: dysfunction in parent's family, multiple parasuicides, exogenic factors such as repeated brain injuries and drug abuse. There were revealed such gender-specific predictors of reoffending: the dynamic component disturbances of cognitive sphere among women; as well as inertia of mental processes, reduction of the amount of memorization, the low level of development of cognitive sphere – such as learning ability, competence in life situations, instability of the self-assessment, violation of self-control and self-criticism in men. Method for statistical data analysis with decision trees was applied to build the prognostic model of criminal reoffending among mentally ill persons. The models support different decisions for risk factors criminal reoffending prognosis in men and women. In men the most significant were the tendency to react due to actual situation (spontaneously), low competence in life situations, the lack of interest in treatment results, simple tasks preference, and reduced ability to the modelling of action context. In the group of women the most significant were violations of operational and dynamic aspects of mental activity. Models have a high diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, efficiency and quality.